Regression discontinuity design for the study of health effects of exposures acting early in life.

Regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental approach to study the causal effect of an exposure on later outcomes by exploiting the discontinuity in the exposure probability at an assignment variable cut-off. With the intent of facilitating the use of RDD in the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) research, we describe the main aspects of the study design and review the studies, assignment variables and exposures that have been investigated to identify short- and long-term health effects of early life exposures. We also provide a brief overview of some of the methodological considerations for the RDD identification using an example of a DOHaD study. An increasing number of studies investigating the effects of early life environmental stressors on health outcomes use RDD, mostly in the context of education, social and welfare policies, healthcare organization and insurance, and clinical management. Age and calendar time are the mostly used assignment variables to study the effects of various early life policies and programs, shock events and guidelines. Maternal and newborn characteristics, such as age, birth weight and gestational age are frequently used assignment variables to study the effects of the type of neonatal care, health insurance, and newborn benefits, while socioeconomic measures have been used to study the effects of social and welfare programs. RDD has advantages, including intuitive interpretation, and transparent and simple graphical representation. It provides valid causal estimates if the assumptions, relatively weak compared to other non-experimental study designs, are met. Its use to study health effects of exposures acting early in life has been limited to studies based on registries and administrative databases, while birth cohort data has not been exploited so far using this design. Local causal effect around the cut-off, difficulty in reaching high statistical power compared to other study designs, and the rarity of settings outside of policy and program evaluations hamper the widespread use of RDD in the DOHaD research. Still, the assignment variables' cut-offs for exposures applied in previous studies can be used, if appropriate, in other settings and with additional outcomes to address different research questions.

Transporting results in an observational epidemiology setting: purposes, methods, and applied example.

In the medical domain, substantial effort has been invested in generating internally valid estimates in experimental as well as observational studies, but limited effort has been made in testing generalizability, or external validity. Testing the external validity of scientific findings is nevertheless crucial for the application of knowledge across populations. In particular, transporting estimates obtained from observational studies requires the combination of methods for causal inference and methods to transport the effect estimates in order to minimize biases inherent to observational studies and to account for differences between the study and target populations. In this paper, the conceptual framework and assumptions behind transporting results from a population-based study population to a target population is described in an observational setting. An applied example to life-course epidemiology, where internal validity was constructed for illustrative purposes, is shown by using the targeted maximum likelihood estimator.

Socioeconomic position, family context, and child cognitive development.

Socioeconomic position (SEP) may have different effects on cognitive development and family context could play a role in this association. This work aimed to analyse the role of socioeconomic positions, measured via various indicators collected longitudinally, in cognitive development at 7-11 years of age, evaluating the role of family context as a potential mediator. The study sample included 394 and 382 children from the INMA Gipuzkoa and Valencia cohorts, respectively. SEP indicators were assessed during pregnancy (family social class, parental education, employment, and disposable income) and at 7 (Gipuzkoa) and 11 (Valencia) years of age (At Risk of Poverty or Social Exclusion (AROPE)). Family context and cognitive development were measured with the Haezi-Etxadi Family Assessment Scale 7-11 (HEFAS 7-11) and Raven's Coloured Progressive Matrices (Raven's CPM), respectively. Linear regression models were developed to assess the relationships between (a) SEP-family context, (b) SEP-cognitive development, and (c) family context-cognitive development, adjusting for a priori-selected confounders. Simple and multiple mediation analyses were performed to explore the role of family context in the SEP-cognitive development relationship. Lower SEP was related with a lower cognitive score, this association being particularly robust for family social class. SEP indicators were related to subscales of family context, in particular those regarding cognitive stimulation, parental stress, and parenting. A relationship was also found between these three subscales and child cognitive development, mediating the effect of family social class on child cognition by 5.2, 5.5, and 10.8%, respectively, and 12.0% jointly.    Conclusion: Both family SEP and context contribute to a child's cognitive development. Equalising policies and positive parenting programmes could contribute to improving cognitive development in children. What is Known: • Parental social class, education, and employment status have been widely employed to measure socioeconomic position. What is New: • This work focuses on standard measurements of socioeconomic position but also other economic indicators such as the EHII and AROPE, and their effect on child cognitive development and family context. • Promotion of cognitive and linguistic development, parental stress and conflict, and parental profile fostering child development mediated the effect of family social class on cognitive development.

Comparison Among Ultra-Thin Coronary Stents: A Network Meta-Analysis.

Ultrathin-strut drug-eluting stents (DES) have been related to potential improvement in stent-related outcomes compared with thicker-struts DES. However, comparisons among different ultrathin devices are lacking. All randomized controlled trials comparing ultrathin (struts thickness <70 µm) and thicker-struts DESs in an all-comers population were included. Target lesion failure (TLF), as defined by included trials, at 1-year follow-up was the primary end point. Overall mortality, myocardial infarction, target lesion revascularization (TLR), and stent thrombosis were the secondary end points. Arms of included trials were compared using network meta-analysis. Nine studies encompassing 20,081 patients were included, of which 9,509 patients had an ultrathin DES: Orsiro (evaluated in 7 arms with 8,086 patients), MiStent (1 arm with 703 patients), or Supraflex (1 arm with 720 patients). At 1-year follow-up, no significant differences were noted for TLF among these ultrathin DES. In particular, Orsiro was associated with a similar risk of TLF compared with Supraflex (risk rate 1.07, 95% confidence interval 0.59 to 1.78) and showed the highest probability of performing best in terms of TLF, myocardial infarction, and TLR. Ultrathin DES are all associated with a comparable risk of TLF compared with thicker-strut DES. In terms of TLR and TLF risk, Orsiro was the one with the highest probability of best performances, either compared with other ultrathin DES or to devices with thicker struts.

Associations of Maternal Educational Level, Proximity to Greenspace During Pregnancy, and Gestational Diabetes With Body Mass Index From Infancy to Early Adulthood: A Proof-of-Concept Federated Analysis in 18 Birth Cohorts.

International sharing of cohort data for research is important and challenging. We explored the feasibility of multi-cohort federated analyses by examining associations between three pregnancy exposures (maternal education, exposure to green vegetation and gestational diabetes) with offspring BMI from infancy to 17 years. We used data from 18 cohorts (n=206,180 mother-child pairs) from the EU Child Cohort Network and derived BMI at ages 0-1, 2-3, 4-7, 8-13 and 14-17 years. Associations were estimated using linear regression via one-stage IPD meta-analysis using DataSHIELD. Associations between lower maternal education and higher child BMI emerged from age 4 and increased with age (difference in BMI z-score comparing low with high education age 2-3 years = 0.03 [95% CI 0.00, 0.05], 4-7 years = 0.16 [95% CI 0.14, 0.17], 8-13 years = 0.24 [95% CI 0.22, 0.26]). Gestational diabetes was positively associated with BMI from 8 years (BMI z-score difference = 0.18 [CI 0.12, 0.25]) but not at younger ages; however associations attenuated towards the null when restricted to cohorts which measured GDM via universal screening. Exposure to green vegetation was weakly associated with higher BMI up to age one but not at older ages. Opportunities of cross-cohort federated analyses are discussed.

Cohort profile: the Turin prostate cancer prognostication (TPCP) cohort.

Introduction: Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most frequent tumor among men in Europe and has both indolent and aggressive forms. There are several treatment options, the choice of which depends on multiple factors. To further improve current prognostication models, we established the Turin Prostate Cancer Prognostication (TPCP) cohort, an Italian retrospective biopsy cohort of patients with PCa and long-term follow-up. This work presents this new cohort with its main characteristics and the distributions of some of its core variables, along with its potential contributions to PCa research. Methods: The TPCP cohort includes consecutive non-metastatic patients with first positive biopsy for PCa performed between 2008 and 2013 at the main hospital in Turin, Italy. The follow-up ended on December 31st 2021. The primary outcome is the occurrence of metastasis; death from PCa and overall mortality are the secondary outcomes. In addition to numerous clinical variables, the study's prognostic variables include histopathologic information assigned by a centralized uropathology review using a digital pathology software system specialized for the study of PCa, tumor DNA methylation in candidate genes, and features extracted from digitized slide images via Deep Neural Networks. Results: The cohort includes 891 patients followed-up for a median time of 10 years. During this period, 97 patients had progression to metastatic disease and 301 died; of these, 56 died from PCa. In total, 65.3% of the cohort has a Gleason score less than or equal to 3 + 4, and 44.5% has a clinical stage cT1. Consistent with previous studies, age and clinical stage at diagnosis are important prognostic factors: the crude cumulative incidence of metastatic disease during the 14-years of follow-up increases from 9.1% among patients younger than 64 to 16.2% for patients in the age group of 75-84, and from 6.1% for cT1 stage to 27.9% in cT3 stage. Discussion: This study stands to be an important resource for updating existing prognostic models for PCa on an Italian cohort. In addition, the integrated collection of multi-modal data will allow development and/or validation of new models including new histopathological, digital, and molecular markers, with the goal of better directing clinical decisions to manage patients with PCa.

Topographical and Chronological Analysis of Thin Cutaneous Melanoma's Progressions: A Multicentric Study.

A great portion of cutaneous melanoma's diagnoses nowadays is attributed to thin tumors with up to 1 mm in Breslow thickness (hereafter thin CMs), which occasionally metastasize. The objective of this study was to identify thin CM's metastatic patterns from a topographical and chronological standpoint. A total of 204 cases of metastatic thin CMs from five specialized centers were included in the study, and corresponding data were collected (clinical, epidemiological, histopathological information of primary tumor and the number, anatomical site, and time intervals of their progressions). First progressions occurred locally, in regional lymph nodes, and in a distant site in 24%, 15% and 61% of cases, respectively, with a median time to first progression of 3.10 years (IQR: 1.09-5.24). The median elapsed time between the first and second progression and between the second and third progression was 0.82 (IQR: 0.34-1.97) and 0.49 (IQR: 0.21-2.30) years, respectively, while the median survival time was about 4 years since first progression. Furthermore, the sequences of locations and time intervals of the progressions were associated with the clinicopathological and demographic features of the primary tumors along with the features of the preceding progressions. In conclusion, the findings of this study describe the natural history of thin CMs, thus highlighting the necessity to identify subgroups of thin CMs at a higher risk for metastasis and contributing to the optimization of the management and follow-up of thin CM patients.

Modelling socioeconomic position as a driver of the exposome in the first 18 months of life of the NINFEA birth cohort children.

BACKGROUND: The exposome drivers are less studied than its consequences but may be crucial in identifying population subgroups with unfavourable exposures. OBJECTIVES: We used three approaches to study the socioeconomic position (SEP) as a driver of the early-life exposome in Turin children of the NINFEA cohort (Italy). METHODS: Forty-two environmental exposures, collected at 18 months of age (N = 1989), were classified in 5 groups (lifestyle, diet, meteoclimatic, traffic-related, built environment). We performed cluster analysis to identify subjects sharing similar exposures, and intra-exposome-group Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality. SEP at childbirth was measured through the Equivalised Household Income Indicator. SEP-exposome association was evaluated using: 1) an Exposome Wide Association Study (ExWAS), a one-exposure (SEP) one-outcome (exposome) approach; 2) multinomial regression of cluster membership on SEP; 3) regressions of each intra-exposome-group PC on SEP. RESULTS: In the ExWAS, medium/low SEP children were more exposed to greenness, pet ownership, passive smoking, TV screen and sugar; less exposed to NO2, NOX, PM25abs, humidity, built environment, traffic load, unhealthy food facilities, fruit, vegetables, eggs, grain products, and childcare than high SEP children. Medium/low SEP children were more likely to belong to a cluster with poor diet, less air pollution, and to live in the suburbs than high SEP children. Medium/low SEP children were more exposed to lifestyle PC1 (unhealthy lifestyle) and diet PC2 (unhealthy diet), and less exposed to PC1s of the built environment (urbanization factors), diet (mixed diet), and traffic (air pollution) than high SEP children. CONCLUSIONS: The three approaches provided consistent and complementary results, suggesting that children with lower SEP are less exposed to urbanization factors and more exposed to unhealthy lifestyles and diet. The simplest method, the ExWAS, conveys most of the information and is more replicable in other populations. Clustering and PCA may facilitate results interpretation and communication.

Cord blood epigenome-wide meta-analysis in six European-based child cohorts identifies signatures linked to rapid weight growth.

BACKGROUND: Rapid postnatal growth may result from exposure in utero or early life to adverse conditions and has been associated with diseases later in life and, in particular, with childhood obesity. DNA methylation, interfacing early-life exposures and subsequent diseases, is a possible mechanism underlying early-life programming. METHODS: Here, a meta-analysis of Illumina HumanMethylation 450K/EPIC-array associations of cord blood DNA methylation at single CpG sites and CpG genomic regions with rapid weight growth at 1 year of age (defined with reference to WHO growth charts) was conducted in six European-based child cohorts (ALSPAC, ENVIRONAGE, Generation XXI, INMA, Piccolipiù, and RHEA, N = 2003). The association of gestational age acceleration (calculated using the Bohlin epigenetic clock) with rapid weight growth was also explored via meta-analysis. Follow-up analyses of identified DNA methylation signals included prediction of rapid weight growth, mediation of the effect of conventional risk factors on rapid weight growth, integration with transcriptomics and metabolomics, association with overweight in childhood (between 4 and 8 years), and comparison with previous findings. RESULTS: Forty-seven CpGs were associated with rapid weight growth at suggestive p-value <1e-05 and, among them, three CpGs (cg14459032, cg25953130 annotated to ARID5B, and cg00049440 annotated to KLF9) passed the genome-wide significance level (p-value <1.25e-07). Sixteen differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were identified as associated with rapid weight growth at false discovery rate (FDR)-adjusted/Siddak p-values < 0.01. Gestational age acceleration was associated with decreasing risk of rapid weight growth (p-value = 9.75e-04). Identified DNA methylation signals slightly increased the prediction of rapid weight growth in addition to conventional risk factors. Among the identified signals, three CpGs partially mediated the effect of gestational age on rapid weight growth. Both CpGs (N=3) and DMRs (N=3) were associated with differential expression of transcripts (N=10 and 7, respectively), including long non-coding RNAs. An AURKC DMR was associated with childhood overweight. We observed enrichment of CpGs previously reported associated with birthweight. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide evidence of the association between cord blood DNA methylation and rapid weight growth and suggest links with prenatal exposures and association with childhood obesity providing opportunities for early prevention.

Association Study between Polymorphisms in DNA Methylation-Related Genes and Testicular Germ Cell Tumor Risk.

BACKGROUND: Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT), histologically classified as seminomas and nonseminomas, are believed to arise from primordial gonocytes, with the maturation process blocked when they are subjected to DNA methylation reprogramming. SNPs in DNA methylation machinery and folate-dependent one-carbon metabolism genes have been postulated to influence the proper establishment of DNA methylation. METHODS: In this pathway-focused investigation, we evaluated the association between 273 selected tag SNPs from 28 DNA methylation-related genes and TGCT risk. We carried out association analysis at individual SNP and gene-based level using summary statistics from the Genome Wide Association Study meta-analysis recently conducted by the international Testicular Cancer Consortium on 10,156 TGCT cases and 179,683 controls. RESULTS: In individual SNP analyses, seven SNPs, four mapping within MTHFR, were associated with TGCT risk after correction for multiple testing (q ≤ 0.05). Queries of public databases showed that three of these SNPs were associated with MTHFR changes in enzymatic activity (rs1801133) or expression level in testis tissue (rs12121543, rs1476413). Gene-based analyses revealed MTHFR (q = 8.4 × 10-4), methyl-CpG-binding protein 2 (MECP2; q = 2 × 10-3), and ZBTB4 (q = 0.03) as the top TGCT-associated genes. Stratifying by tumor histology, four MTHFR SNPs were associated with seminoma. In gene-based analysis MTHFR was associated with risk of seminoma (q = 2.8 × 10-4), but not with nonseminomatous tumors (q = 0.22). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variants within MTHFR, potentially having an impact on the DNA methylation pattern, are associated with TGCT risk. IMPACT: This finding suggests that TGCT pathogenesis could be associated with the folate cycle status, and this relation could be partly due to hereditary factors.

Cord blood metabolites and rapid postnatal growth as multiple mediators in the prenatal propensity to childhood overweight.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms underlying childhood overweight and obesity are poorly known. Here, we investigated the direct and indirect effects of different prenatal exposures on offspring rapid postnatal growth and overweight in childhood, mediated through cord blood metabolites. Additionally, rapid postnatal growth was considered a potential mediator on childhood overweight, alone and sequentially to each metabolite. METHODS: Within four European birth-cohorts (N = 375 mother-child dyads), information on seven prenatal exposures (maternal education, pre-pregnancy BMI, weight gain and tobacco smoke during pregnancy, age at delivery, parity, and child gestational age), selected as obesogenic according to a-priori knowledge, was collected. Cord blood levels of 31 metabolites, associated with rapid postnatal growth and/or childhood overweight in a previous study, were measured via liquid-chromatography-quadrupole-time-of-flight-mass-spectrometry. Rapid growth at 12 months and childhood overweight (including obesity) between four and eight years were defined with reference to WHO growth charts. Single mediation analysis was performed using the imputation approach and multiple mediation analysis using the extended-imputation approach. RESULTS: Single mediation suggested that the effect of maternal education, pregnancy weight gain, parity, and gestational age on rapid postnatal growth but not on childhood overweight was partly mediated by seven metabolites, including cholestenone, decenoylcarnitine(C10:1), phosphatidylcholine(C34:3), progesterone and three unidentified metabolites; and the effect of gestational age on childhood overweight was mainly mediated by rapid postnatal growth. Multiple mediation suggested that the effect of gestational age on childhood overweight was mainly mediated by rapid postnatal growth and that the mediating role of the metabolites was marginal. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide evidence of the involvement of in utero metabolism in the propensity to rapid postnatal growth and of rapid postnatal growth in the propensity to childhood overweight. We did not find evidence supporting a mediating role of the studied metabolites alone between the studied prenatal exposures and the propensity to childhood overweight.

Prognostic Utility of the Gleason Grading System Revisions and Histopathological Factors Beyond Gleason Grade.

BACKGROUND: The International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) revised the Gleason system in 2005 and 2014. The impact of these changes on prostate cancer (PCa) prognostication remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if the ISUP 2014 Gleason score (GS) predicts PCa death better than the pre-2005 GS, and if additional histopathological information can further improve PCa death prediction. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested among men in the National Prostate Cancer Register of Sweden diagnosed with non-metastatic PCa 1998-2015. We included 369 men who died from PCa (cases) and 369 men who did not (controls). Two uro-pathologists centrally re-reviewed biopsy ISUP 2014 Gleason grading, poorly formed glands, cribriform pattern, comedonecrosis, perineural invasion, intraductal, ductal and mucinous carcinoma, percentage Gleason 4, inflammation, high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (HGPIN) and post-atrophic hyperplasia. Pre-2005 GS was back-transformed using i) information on cribriform pattern and/or poorly formed glands and ii) the diagnostic GS from the registry. Models were developed using Firth logistic regression and compared in terms of discrimination (AUC). RESULTS: The ISUP 2014 GS (AUC = 0.808) performed better than the pre-2005 GS when back-transformed using only cribriform pattern (AUC = 0.785) or both cribriform and poorly formed glands (AUC = 0.792), but not when back-transformed using only poorly formed glands (AUC = 0.800). Similarly, the ISUP 2014 GS performed better than the diagnostic GS (AUC = 0.808 vs 0.781). Comedonecrosis (AUC = 0.811), HGPIN (AUC = 0.810) and number of cores with ≥50% cancer (AUC = 0.810) predicted PCa death independently of the ISUP 2014 GS. CONCLUSION: The Gleason Grading revisions have improved PCa death prediction, likely due to classifying cribriform patterns, rather than poorly formed glands, as Gleason 4. Comedonecrosis, HGPIN and number of cores with ≥50% cancer further improve PCa death discrimination slightly.

Quality of life among germ-cell testicular cancer survivors: The effect of time since cancer diagnosis.

INTRODUCTION: Testicular cancer is one of the most treatable cancers, with a 10-year survival of more than 95%. Many patients will be long-term survivors and this disease strikes men in an important phase of their lives, therefore the quality of life (QoL) among these patients is an area of particular interest. We aimed to study whether QoL in testicular cancer survivors depends on the time since cancer diagnosis. METHODS: Data were collected from the EPSAM (Esposizioni postnatali e salute maschile) study, a case-control study on patients with testicular cancer, diagnosed between 1997 and 2008 in the province of Turin, Northern Italy, and interviewed between 2008 and 2010 (response rate among cases 57%). Patients were contacted through their oncologist at the San Giovanni Batista Hospital in Turin or through their general practitioner (GP) in the rest of the Province of Turin. QoL was assessed cross-sectionally using the short form 12 (SF-12) questionnaire, a generic short-form health survey that produces two summary scores, PCS (physical component score) and MCS (mental component score), to evaluate physical and mental health, respectively. RESULTS: Out of 234 study patients, 125 cases were seminomas and 109 cases were nonseminomas. The mean age at diagnosis was 34.5 years. After adjusting for age, time since diagnosis was not associated with PCS and MCS scores. Among nonseminomas, the median PCS slightly increased (adjusted OR (odds ratio) for 5+ vs < 2 years since cancer diagnosis: 1.78 (1.17-2.73), p = 0.008) and MCS slightly decreased (adjusted OR per 1-year increase since cancer diagnosis: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.82-1.05, p = 0.23) with time. Similar findings of no association between time since diagnosis and PCS and MCS were found when the analyses were restricted to the subgroup of cancer patients contacted through their oncologist, whose response proportion was 82%. CONCLUSION: In a study of testicular cancer patients interviewed cross-sectionally at 1 to more than 10 years since diagnosis, time since cancer diagnosis was not associated with QoL when we considered all germ-cell testicular cancer patients together. When stratified by histology type, we found certain evidence that nonseminoma cases report higher PCS over time since cancer diagnosis.

COVID-19-like symptoms and their relation to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in children and adults of an Italian birth cohort

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the population prevalence of COVID-19-like symptoms in children and adults during the first SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave hitting Italy in the spring 2020; to assess their geographical correlation with the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases by province; to analyse their clustering within families; to estimate their sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for COVID-19 diagnosis in individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2. DESIGN: cross-sectional study nested within a birth cohort. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: mothers participating in an Italian birth cohort (NINFEA) were invited to complete an online questionnaire on COVID-19-like symptoms in their household. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: population prevalence of COVID-19-like symptoms in children and adults, geographical correlation of COVID-19-like symptoms with the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases by province, clustering of COVID-19-like symptoms within families, and sensitivity, PPV and NPV of COVID-19-like symptoms for COVID-19 diagnosis in individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: information was collected on 3,184 households, 6,133 adults, and 5,751 children. In the period March-April 2020, 55.4% of the NINFEA families had at least one member with at least one COVID-19-like symptom. There was a strong geographical correlation between the population cumulative incidence of COVID-19 and the prevalence of muscle pain, fatigue, low-grade fever, and breathing difficulties in adults (Spearman's rho >=0.70). Having at least one family member with a COVID-19 diagnosis, compared with none tested for SARS-CoV-2, was associated with an increased prevalence ratio (PR) of almost all COVID-19-like symptoms in adults, and only of low-grade fever (37-37.5°C; PR 4.54; 95%CI 2.20-9.40) and anosmia/dysgeusia in children. Among adults with COVID-19 diagnosis, fatigue, muscle pain, and fever had a sensitivity >=70%. In individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2, with a 16.6% prevalence of COVID-19, breathing difficulties and nausea/vomiting had the highest PPVs, with point estimates close to 60%, and with NPVs close to 90%. CONCLUSIONS: the geographical prevalence of COVID-19-like symptoms in adults may inform on local disease clusters, while certain symptoms in family members of confirmed COVID-19 cases could help identify the intra-familial spread of the virus and its further propagation in the community. Low-grade fever is frequent in children with at least one household member with COVID-19 and possibly indicates child infection.

Returning to dialysis after kidney allograft failure: the experience of the Italian Registry of Paediatric Chronic Dialysis.

BACKGROUND: The need for dialysis after kidney allograft failure (DAGF) is among the top five reasons for dialysis initiation, making this an important topic in clinical nephrology. However, data are scarce on dialysis choice after transplantation and clinical outcomes for DAGF in children. METHODS: Patients receiving chronic dialysis < 18 years were recorded from January 1991 to January 2019 by the Italian Registry of Pediatric Chronic Dialysis (IRPCD). We investigated factors influencing choice of dialysis modality, patient outcome in terms of mortality, switching dialysis modality, and kidney transplantation. RESULTS: Among 118 patients receiving DAGF, 41 (35%) were treated with peritoneal dialysis (PD), and 77 (65%) with haemodialysis (HD). Significant predictors for treatment with PD were younger age at dialysis start (OR 0.85 per year increase [95%CI 0.72-1.00]) and PD use before kidney transplantation (OR 8.20 [95%CI 1.82-37.01]). Patients entering DAGF in more recent eras (OR 0.87 per year increase [95%CI 0.80-0.94]) and with more than one dialysis modality before kidney transplantation (OR 0.56 for being treated with PD [0.12-2.59]) were more likely to be initiated on HD. As compared to patients on HD, those treated with PD exhibited increased but non-significant mortality risk (HR 2.15 [95%CI 0.54-8.6]; p = 0.28) and higher prevalence of dialysis-related complications during DAGF (p = 0.002) CONCLUSIONS: Patients entering DAGF in more recent years are more likely to be initiated on HD. In this specific population of children, use of PD seems associated with a more complicated course. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Adhesive small bowel obstruction: Single band or matted adhesions? A predictive model based on computed tomography scan.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative identification of the cause of adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO) is crucial for decision making. Some computed tomography (CT) findings can be indicative of single adhesive bands or matted adhesions. Our aim was to build a predictive model based on CT data to discriminate ASBO due to single adhesive band or matted adhesions. METHODS: A retrospective single center study was conducted, covering all consecutive patients with a preoperative CT scan, undergoing urgent surgery for ASBO between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2017. Preoperative CT scans were blindly reviewed, and all the CT findings indicative of single adhesive band or matted adhesions described in literature were recorded. According to intraoperative findings, ASBOs were retrospectively classified into single band and matted ASBO. All observed CT findings were compared between the two groups. A predictive model based on logistic regression was developed, and its ability was quantified by discrimination and calibration. Internal cross-validation was conducted by bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: A total of 116 patients were analyzed (males, 53.5%; median age, 68 years; single band ASBO in 65.5% of cases). The odds of single band ASBO were increased four times in presence of complete obstruction (odds ratios, 4.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.49-12.56) and seven times in presence of fat notch sign (odds ratios, 7.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.83-40.03). The predictive model combining all CT findings had an accuracy of 86% in single band ASBO prediction. Accuracy decreased to 79% in the internal validation. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated at different cut-points of the predicted risk: using a 0.70 cut-point, the specificity is 80%, the sensitivity is 68%, and the positive and negative predictive values are 87% and 57%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The proposed predictive model based on combination of specific CT findings may elucidate whether ASBO is caused by single bands or matted adhesions and, consequently, influence the clinical pathway. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic study, level IV.

Stratification of Major Hepatectomies According to Their Outcome: Analysis of 2212 Consecutive Open Resections in Patients Without Cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVE: To stratify major hepatectomies (MajHs) according to their outcomes. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: MajHs are associated with non-negligible operative risks, but they include a wide range of procedures. Detailed depiction of the outcomes of different MajHs is the basis for a new classification of liver resections. METHODS: We retrospectively considered patients that underwent hepatectomy in 17 high-volume centers. Patients with an associated digestive/biliary resection were excluded. We analyzed open MajHs in non-cirrhotic patients. MajHs were classified according to the Brisbane nomenclature. Right hepatectomies (RHs) were reference standards. Outcomes were adjusted for potential confounders, including indication, liver function, preoperative portal vein embolization, and enrolling center. RESULTS: We analyzed a series of 2212 patients. In comparison with RH, left hepatectomy had lower mortality [0.6% vs 2.2%, odds ratio (OR) = 0.25], severe morbidity (11.7% vs 14.4%, OR = 0.62), and liver failure rates (2.1% vs 11.6%, OR = 0.16). Left hepatectomy+Sg1 and mesohepatectomy+/-Sg1 had outcomes similar to RH, except for higher bile leak rate (31.3% and 13.5% vs 6.7%, OR = 4.36 and OR = 2.29). RH + Sg1 had slightly worse outcomes than RH. Right and left trisectionectomies had higher mortality (5.0% and 7.3% vs 2.2%, OR = 2.07 and OR = 2.71) and liver failure rates than RH (19.0% and 22.0% vs 11.6%, OR = 2.03 and OR = 2.21). Left trisectionectomy had even higher severe morbidity (25.6% vs 14.4%, OR = 2.07) and bile leak rates (14.6% vs 6.7%, OR = 2.31). CONCLUSIONS: The term "major hepatectomy" includes resections having heterogeneous outcome. Different MajHs can be stratified according to their mortality, severe morbidity, liver failure, and bile leak rates.

Measuring Child Socio-Economic Position in Birth Cohort Research: The Development of a Novel Standardized Household Income Indicator.

The assessment of early life socioeconomic position (SEP) is essential to the tackling of social inequalities in health. Although different indicators capture different SEP dimensions, maternal education is often used as the only indicator in birth cohort research, especially in multi-cohort analyses. Household income, as a direct measure of material resources, is one of the most important indicators, but one that is underused because it is difficult to measure through questionnaires. We propose a method to construct a standardized, cross-cohort comparable income indicator, the "Equivalized Household Income Indicator (EHII)", which measures the equivalized disposable household income, using external data from the pan-European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EUSILC) surveys, and data from the cohorts. We apply this method to four studies, Piccolipiù and NINFEA from Italy and ELFE and EDEN from France, comparing the distribution of EHII with other SEP-related variables available in the cohorts, and estimating the association between EHII and child body mass index (BMI). We found that basic parental and household characteristics may be used, with a fairly good performance, to predict the household income. We observed a strong correlation between EHII and both the self-reported income, whenever available, and other individual socioeconomic-related variables, and an inverse association with child BMI. EHII could contribute to improving research on social inequalities in health, in particular in the context of European birth cohort collaborative studies.

Predicting Prostate Cancer Death with Different Pretreatment Risk Stratification Tools: A Head-to-head Comparison in a Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Numerous pretreatment risk classification tools are available for prostate cancer. Which tool is best in predicting prostate cancer death is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To systematically compare the prognostic performance of the most commonly used pretreatment risk stratification tools for prostate cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A nationwide cohort study was conducted, including 154 811 men in Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe) 4.0 diagnosed with nonmetastatic prostate cancer during 1998-2016 and followed through 2016. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We compared the D'Amico, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), European Association of Urology (EAU), Genito-Urinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC), American Urological Association (AUA), National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN), and Cambridge Prognostic Groups (CPG) risk group systems; the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score; and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram in predicting prostate cancer death by estimating the concordance index (C-index) and the observed versus predicted cumulative incidences at different follow-up times. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: A total of 139 515 men were included in the main analysis, of whom 15 961 died from prostate cancer during follow-up. The C-index at 10 yr of follow-up ranged from 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72-0.73) to 0.81 (95% CI: 0.80-0.81) across the compared tools. The MSKCC nomogram (C-index: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.80-0.81), CAPRA score (C-index: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.79-0.81), and CPG system (C-index: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.78-0.79) performed the best. The order of performance between the tools remained in analyses stratified by primary treatment and year of diagnosis. The predicted cumulative incidences were close to the observed ones, with some underestimation at 5 yr. It is a limitation that the study was conducted solely in a Swedish setting (ie, case mix). CONCLUSIONS: The MSKCC nomogram, CAPRA score, and CPG risk grouping system performed better in discriminating prostate cancer death than the D'Amico and D'Amico-derived systems (NICE, GUROC, EAU, AUA, and NCCN). Use of these tools may improve clinical decision making. PATIENT SUMMARY: There are numerous pretreatment risk classification tools that can aid treatment decision for prostate cancer. We systematically compared the prognostic performance of the most commonly used tools in a large cohort of Swedish men with prostate cancer. The Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score, and Cambridge Prognostic Groups performed best in predicting prostate cancer death. The use of these tools may improve treatment decisions.